Semicon West Wrap-up: Market expectations; products on exhibit
Semicon West, July 13-17, 2009, San Francisco, CA.
Rick Nelson, Editor in Chief -- Test & Measurement World, 7/22/2009 11:05:00 AM
| Read more Semicon West coverage |
Semicon West 2009 (July 13–17, San Francisco) wrapped up with mixed messages on the economic prospects for the semiconductor industry and semiconductor equipment market, including the market for test equipment. Exhibitors and visitors were cautious at best—with the notable exception of Walden C. Rhines, chairman and CEO of Mentor Graphics. In a July 15 keynote address, Rhines said, “It’s really hard to believe that in a recession like this one the semiconductor market can fare better than the overall economy,” but he went on to describe why he believes the semiconductor market is indeed poised to fare better than other markets. He concluded by saying, “Unit growth and innovation will drive the 35% per year per transistor cost reduction needed to enable the next wave of applications.”
In a July 14 press conference, Stanley T. Myers, president and CEO of SEMI, said a few data points indicate positive momentum for the industry. Among those points is that the silicon-area shipment index (measured on a three-month moving average) is up 60% from the trough at the beginning of this year. In addition, he said, lead-frame unit shipments on a three-month moving average were up 20% from May compared with April (albeit 31% less than a year ago), and semiconductor unit shipments on a three-month moving average were up 8.9% in May over April (albeit 19% below a year ago).
As for the semiconductor equipment outlook, Myers said SEMI’s midyear 2009 semiconductor consensus forecast estimates sales of $14.14 billion in 2009 and $20.74 billion in 2010, compared with actual sales of $42.77 billion in 2007 and $29.52 billion in 2008. The test-equipment portion of those totals is $5.05 billion in 2007 (actual), $3.45 billion in 2008 (actual), $1.78 billion in 2009 (forecast), and $2.54 billion in 2010 (forecast).
On the exhibit floor
On the show floor, IMEC pointed the way toward future innovation, outlining technologies for scaling CMOS transistors and interconnects to 22 nm and below. Representatives of Teradyne were on hand to highlight the company's market position in the wireless test market, citing Gartner research showing that Teradyne enjoyed a 66.5% share of the worldwide ATE RF testing market for 2008. Teradyne also highlighted its Eagle Test line-up, including the new ETS-88 (photo). Verigy at its booth celebrated the 10th anniversary of the V93000, which debuted under the Hewlett-Packard banner at Semicon West 1999. The company reported that the first system, sold in 1999 to STMicroelectronics is still in use.
At the co-located Intersolar North America, TÜV SÜD America announced an agreement to cooperate on PV (photovoltaic) test and certification with the Renewable Energy Test Center, which is establishing PV test laboratories in Fremont, CA, and expects to become operational in 2010. Also at Intersolar, Vela Solaris announced an upgrade to its Polysun simulation software to include updated data from the Solar Rating and Certification Corporation for US solar-system components.
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