Oscilloscope market set for growth in 2011

Product introductions are increasing this year, with more introductions expected by the second quarter.

Prathima Bommakanti, Senior Industry Analyst, Measurement & Instrumentation Group, Frost & Sullivan -- Test & Measurement World, 4/1/2011 12:00:00 AM

In 2009 and 2010, oscilloscope companies faced both bad and good times. The slowdown of the global economy restricted the capital available for expansion of production facilities across most end-user segments. Electronics-manufacturing, industrial, automotive, and communications end users, which represent a large portion of the oscilloscope market revenues, were severely affected.

By 2014, the oscilloscope market is forecasted to reach $1513.4 million in revenues.

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Tablet success to infringe on PC sale

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Read more from the April 2011 issue.

The drop in demand from these end users stalled or postponed a significant number of product sales, reducing the demand for oscilloscopes to unprecedented low levels. Scope manufacturers' focus on R&D, however, increased new product introductions featuring capabilities that encouraged purchases.

In 2011, product introductions and enhancements have continued and more are expected from leading vendors of oscilloscopes by the second quarter. "The engineer's job continues to be significantly impacted by megatrends such as wireless connectivity, data bandwidth, energy, and the need for faster time to answer," said Brian Reich, GM for performance oscilloscopes at Tektronix. "Technology innovation plays a huge role in how test manufacturers like us are able to address these accelerating trends."

The world oscilloscope market generated $987.7 million in 2009, declining by 22.2% from 2006, when revenues were $1269.7 million. Going forward, revenues are expected to reach $1513.4 million in 2014, as pent-up demand and new product introductions will drive demand in the short and medium terms of the forecast period.

Frost & Sullivan expects the North American oscilloscope market to witness medium growth in the short term, with the aerospace and defense industry anticipated to generate sustained demand. Also, "the embedded and mobile PC market is driving demand for midrange oscilloscopes as well as higher resolutions," said Bill Driver, product marketing manager for LeCroy. "Increasing demands on the Internet data-transmission backbone and long-haul coherent optical transmissions drive the higher end of the market for 20- to 45-GHz oscilloscopes, and continued strength in the PC market for high-speed serial data communications is driving demand in the 8- to 20-GHz bandwidth range."

On its end, Eastern Europe is expected to witness a rise in demand for oscilloscopes across all end-user verticals from automotive to consumer electronics and communications. In addition, the continued shift of manufacturing activities to Asia, especially India and China, combined with the affinity of those countries for the latest technologies, is expected to drive adoption of oscilloscopes in this region.

Tablet success to infringe on PC sales

As the iPad 2 begins what will surely be high sales and as devices like the Samsung Galaxy Tab start to gain traction, market researchers IDC (International Data Corp.), Gartner, and IHS iSuppli are taking a look at media tablets and the role of the PC, especially with consumers.

IDC has reported that 10.1 million media tablets were shipped in the fourth quarter of 2010, more than double the 4.5 million shipped in the third quarter of 2010. Apple owned a 73% share of the shipments in the fourth quarter, down from the 93% it held in the third quarter, but the 73% share still reflected the iPad maker's exceptionally strong leadership position. IDC pointed to Samsung's Galaxy Tab as the primary competitor in the holiday season, as it captured more than a 17% share.

Based on expectations of weaker demand for mobile consumer PCs, Gartner recently lowered its PC unit forecast for 2011 and 2012. Worldwide PC shipments are forecast to reach 387.8 million units in 2011, a 10.5% increase from 2010, according to Gartner's preliminary forecast. While the projected growth is still double digits, it is down by about a third from Gartner's previous projection of 15.9% growth this year.

All is not lost for the PC market, however. Data from IHS iSuppli showed that global PC shipments in the fourth quarter totaled 93.1 million units, up 5.7% sequentially and up 4.7% year over year. PC shipments during the quarter hit a new quarterly record, blowing past the previous high of 88.9 million units set in the fourth quarter of 2009, according to the research firm.

Suzanne Deffree, Managing Editor, News, EDN

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