Fine-tuning the turnaround
Rick Nelson, Executive Editor -- Test & Measurement World, 9/1/2003
At the July Semicon West show in San Jose, signs pointed to an improving economic picture for the electronics industry. ATE makers Agilent Technologies and Teradyne and assembly-equipment maker Kulicke & Soffa reported significant orders, and the book-to-bill ratio of back-end assembly and test equipment reached an encouraging 1.19. Scott Kulicke, CEO of Kulicke & Soffa, said he believes we are at the beginning of a technology-driven recovery, resulting from the successful move to 130-nm semiconductor technology. Nick Konidaris, CEO of Advantest America, said, "The outlook is increasingly positive." He cautioned, though, that "whether we can expect a ripple or a tsunami, I don't know."
Indeed, there are reasons for suspecting a mere ripple. Doubt especially plagues the job market. Unemployment among electrical engineers was an unprecedented 7% in the first quarter of this year (see "Weathering the storm," T&MW, August 2003, p. 37). With downsizing and outsourcing on everyone's mind, some form of this question inevitably emerged at Semicon West press events: "How can US companies prosper when they're continually laying off their best customers?"
Konidaris isn't worried. He predicted an equilibrium in which countries contribute what they're best at—be it technological innovation or low-cost manufacturing. Innovation and labor-force education, he said, will be necessary for US companies to thrive.
Kulicke, though, suggested the answer is far from simple. "Every CEO will tell you that 'if I don't move some jobs to Asia, all jobs in America will disappear.' That's what they'll tell you, although it might not be true."
In fact, Kulicke said, "It's not a CEO problem; it's a complicated public-policy issue. It comes down to what kind of country you want to live in."
The opening of markets and the transfer of jobs are inevitable and, no doubt, ultimately beneficial. The process by which they occur, though, is open to fine-tuning. No one CEO has the answers.
As engineers, our first responsibility is the innovation that Konidaris cited. But in addition, we can all contribute to the political process that determines in what kind of country we want to live, weighing, for example, the economic benefits of globalization against the labor practices and environmental-protection policies of the countries to which we propose to outsource the work we choose not to do ourselves.
Contact Rick Nelson at rnelson@tmworld.com.
