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What factors are affecting growth in the SI market?

Mark Holler, Research Analyst, Frost & Sullivan -- Test & Measurement World, 4/1/2007

Mark Holler is a research analyst with the Frost & Sullivan North American Industrial Automation & Electronics Practice. He focuses on monitoring and analyzing emerging trends, technologies, and market dynamics in the test & measurement industry.

Since joining Frost & Sullivan in July 2006, Holler has completed several research studies and consulting projects on synthetic instrumentation and wireless network test equipment.

Synthetic instrumentation (SI) has been a prominent buzzword in the test and measurement industry over the last few years, and with good reason. The aerospace and defense (A&D) industry continues to be the largest driver for growth in the market, but SI contains inherent benefits that make it extremely attractive to commercial industries as well:

  • the ability to emulate multiple traditional instruments using a common set of hardware,
  • rapid reconfigurability,
  • the ability to integrate multiple form factors and technologies within one system,
  • a reduced footprint,
  • the elimination of redundant hardware, and
  • reduced obsolescence by allowing users to replace or add individual components.

The communication industry also provides significant growth potential for the SI market. The proliferation of wireless technology has created and increased the demand for testing equipment. As SI technology becomes more affordable and as awareness within the commercial sector increases, SI technology has tremendous potential within the communications industry.

Synthetic instrumentation will become attractive to commercial and communications users as the technology matures and competition lowers costs.

Nevertheless, the market penetration for SI systems remains very low and has been confined almost exclusively to the A&D industry. There are a couple of reasons why.

First, a lack of competition within the market and the corresponding high cost of SI systems serve to restrain growth. Only a few complete solution providers and system integrators compete in the market, and these participants are focusing on high-performance RF and microwave solutions that cost between $100,000 and $700,000. As interest in SI increases, more competitors are likely to enter the market and drive down the costs. As technology improves, less costly and lower-performance systems will become available.

In addition, most companies take a wait-and-see approach to new technologies. Traditional modular and card-cage test systems have a proven record of precision and performance, while SI systems are still viewed as “pie-in-the-sky” technology by many market participants. As SI technology becomes more mature, commercial users will be more willing to use SI systems in their operations.

So, what does the future hold for SI systems? SI has the potential to replace traditional automated test equipment (ATE) for many end users. If all participants that build ATE systems use this concept, then the estimated potential is approximately $500 million. This clearly indicates that the SI market portends tremendous opportunities for growth. But this growth depends on the vendors’ ability to deliver a cost-effective, proven solution, and to successfully market this solution to commercial end users. Once this is achieved, the SI market will finally be able to reach its full potential.

 

PCB book-to-bill

The North American rigid printed-circuit board (PCB) industry book-to-bill ratio for January continued below parity at 0.91, while the flexible-circuit book-to-bill ratio edged up to 0.93, according to IPC. Rigid PCB shipments were down 3.5% and bookings were down 19.2% in January 2007 from January 2006. Flexible circuit shipments in January 2007 were up 14.3% and bookings were down 10.6%. www.ipc.org.

Virtual VoIP in China

With China’s telecom market having relatively high long-distance rates, VoIP has gained fast market recognition, reports In-Stat. The number of broadband VoIP subscribers served by telecom carriers is expected to expand to 9.53 million by the end of 2011, up from 720,000 in 2006, the market-research firm says. www.in-stat.com.

Semiconductor equipment book-to-bill

North American-based manufacturers of semiconductor equipment posted $1.71 billion in orders in January 2007 (three-month average basis) and a book-to-bill ratio of 1.06, according to SEMI. The three-month average of worldwide bookings in January 2007 was $1.71 billion. The bookings figure is about 14% higher than the final December 2006 level and about 39% above the January 2006 level. www.semi.org.

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