IPC releases November PCB industry results
-- Test & Measurement World, 12/27/2007 10:55:00 AM
IPC—Association Connecting Electronics Industries has announced the November findings from its monthly North American Printed Circuit Board (PCB) Statistical Program.
Rigid PCB shipments are down 9.6% and bookings are up 11.8%% in November 2007 from November 2006. Year to date, rigid PCB shipments are down 9.1% and bookings are down 8.0%. Compared with the previous month, rigid PCB shipments decreased 1.7% and rigid bookings decreased 4.1%. The book-to-bill ratio for the North American rigid PCB industry in November 2007 was 1.06.
Flexible circuit shipments in November 2007 were down 1.6% and bookings were up 12.6% compared with November 2006. Year to date, flexible circuit shipments are down 6.4% and bookings are up 5.5%. Compared with the previous month, flexible circuit shipments were up 16.3% and flex bookings rose 4.3%. The North American flexible circuit book-to-bill fell back to 1.02 in November.
For rigid PCBs and flexible circuits combined, industry shipments in November 2007 decreased 9.1% and orders booked increased 11.8% from November 2006. Year to date, combined industry shipments are down 9.0% and bookings are down 7.2%. Compared with the previous month, combined industry shipments for November 2007 are down 0.6% and bookings are down 3.5%. The combined (rigid and flex) industry book-to-bill ratio in November 2007 remained positive at 1.06.
“November PCB industry sales in North America continued just slightly under last year’s sales for the same month,” said IPC president Denny McGuirk. “But the book-to-bill ratios have remained positive and the fundamentals appear to be in good shape,” he added.
The book-to-bill ratios are calculated by dividing the value of orders booked over the past three months by the value of sales billed during the same period from companies in IPC’s survey sample. A ratio of more than 1.00 suggests that current demand is ahead of supply, which is a positive indicator for sales growth over the next two to three months.
Book-to-bill ratios and growth rates for rigid PCBs and flexible circuits combined are heavily affected by the rigid PCB segment. Rigid PCBs represent an estimated 88% of the current PCB market in North America, according to IPC’s World PCB Production and Laminate Market Report for the Year 2006.
IPC’s monthly survey of the North American PCB industry tracks bookings and shipments from US and Canadian facilities, which provide indicators of regional demand. These numbers do not measure US and Canadian PCB production. To track regional production trends, however, IPC asks survey participants for the percentage of their reported shipments that were produced domestically (that is, in the US or Canada). In November 2007, 84% of total PCB shipments reported were domestically produced. Domestic production accounted for 84% of rigid PCB and 88% of flexible circuit shipments in November by IPC’s survey participants. These numbers are significantly affected by the mix of companies in IPC’s survey sample, which remains constant throughout each calendar year, but may change with the January survey results.
Flexible circuit sales typically include value-added services such as assembly, in addition to the bare flex circuits. In November, the flexible circuit manufacturers in IPC’s survey sample indicated that bare circuits accounted for about 54% of their shipment value reported for the month. This is considerably lower than the typical proportion of bare circuits in flexible circuit sales. Assembly and other services, however, make up a large and growing segment of flexible circuit producers’ business. This figure is also sensitive to changes in the survey sample, which may occur at the beginning of each calendar year.
Year-on-year and year-to-date growth rates provide the most meaningful view of industry growth, according to IPC. Month-to-month comparisons should be made with caution as they may reflect cyclical effects. Because bookings tend to be more volatile than shipments, changes in the book-to-bill ratios from month to month may not be significant unless a trend of three consecutive months or more is apparent. It is also important to consider changes in bookings and shipments to understand what is driving changes in the book-to-bill ratio.
The information in IPC’s monthly PCB industry statistics is based on data provided by a representative sample of both rigid and flexible PCB manufacturers in the US and Canada. IPC publishes the PCB Book-to-Bill Ratio and the Interconnect Manufacturing Services (IMS) Business Report each month. Statistics for the previous month are not available until the last week of the following month.
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