Link This |
Email this |
Blog This |
Comments (2)
Did Moore posit a law, or an inalienable right?
July 31, 2007
Is Moore’s Law really a law? It never had the force of, say, the second law of thermodynamics, although the word “law” attached to it might suggest it is immutable. That seemed to be the view of Moore’s Law held by some members of the Test & Measurement World sales and business staff, as became apparent at a recent staff meeting.
I explained that far from having the force of A=πr2, Moore’s Law is simply the 1965 observation of Intel co-founder Gordon Moore that transistor density doubles every 18 months. It turns out my explanation was wrong—Moore postulated two years, not 18 months, according to Intel’s Moore’s Law site. But in any event, there is no pressure cooker in the sky that crams transistors twice as close together in any given period. Compliance with Moore’s Law requires ongoing human ingenuity. If semiconductor engineers sit on their hands for 18 months, or two years, or whatever, transistor density won’t increase at all.
So far, the engineers have not been sitting on their hands, and transistor density has inexorably risen. But engineers’ efforts might be running out of steam. Here’s Ed Sperling and Ann Steffora Mutschler of Electronic News: “For the first time since Moore’s Law was developed in 1965, the road map to the next process node for advanced semiconductors is lacking a clear direction—and some would say any direction at all. While researchers can see their way down to the 22-nm process node—roughly two nodes ahead of where they are developing now—the next step is completely out of focus for most of them. Until now, the road map always was understood for at least several successive generations, doubling the number of transistors on a piece of silicon every two years, even if the details about how to get there weren’t clear. Beyond 22 nm, however, most executives say there is almost no understanding of technologies to be used or the equipment that will be needed to create it.”
The Sperling and Mutschler piece caught the attention of Andrew Leonard at Salon, who posits that if Moore’s Law is not a law, with 40 years of success it “has become practically an inalienable right.” He continues, “Metaphorically speaking, the end of Moore's Law would be quite a shock. Moore's Law inspires the kind of techno-utopianism that believes, almost as an act of faith, that humanity can innovate itself out of the messes it creates by sheer cleverness. Peak oil? Don't worry about it—once Moore's Law starts working its magic on solar power, we'll have all the energy we need.”
Indeed, as I noted in an earlier post, semiconductor equipment suppliers have turned their attention to solar power. But as Leonard concludes: “But there's also a dangerous assumption built in; that we can keep this hustle going on forever….But when you start measuring things in angstroms, isn't it possible that you're beginning to run out of room?”
Posted by Rick Nelson on July 31, 2007 | Comments (2)
