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Lightning, Fermi, and a question
June 16, 2006
Next week is Lightning Safety Awareness Week, which the US National Weather Service uses to promote ways to reduce exposure to what it calls one of the nation's deadliest weather phenomena. According to weather information service WeatherBug, "one person in 300 will either be struck by lightning or be affected by a close associate being a lightning victim" during his or her lifetime.
But Carl Bialik, who writes "The Numbers Guy" column in the Wall Street Journal, is skeptical about estimates of lightning's danger. He concludes his column "Lightning Stats Are Partly Cloudy" with a quote from a former researcher at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration saying that the figures used for the 1-in-300 calculation (for instance, the number of people hit by lightening per year, average lifespan, and average number of close associates each person has) are "all somewhat arbitrary."
But that may be the beauty of the calculation. It sounds like a Fermi problem to me, with a clear, not partly cloudy, answer.
Here's a question--what was the original Fermi problem, and what is the answer? Use the comments link or send me e-mail.
Posted by Rick Nelson on June 16, 2006 | Comments (0)
