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Hand-cranked laptops and old big things
November 30, 2005

Seth Jayson, a contributor to the investment Website The Motley Fool (free, registration required), cautioned earlier this year that "the next big thing" often turns into "the next big joke"--a market failure, like the Iridium satellite mobile phone, or overpriced, like Sirius satellite radio.

He recommended avoiding the world beater of tomorrow in favor of the more commonplace. In fact, the next big things may well be the old big things. According to a report issued today by In-Stat, wireless LANs, cell phones, digital TVs, gaming consoles, and even PCs are ongoing big things. Only PDAs represent an over-the-hill, former big thing, In-Stat reports, as smart phones are replacing them.

Of course, despite the healthy volumes In-Stat is predicting for its continuing big things, prices are certainly trending downwards, putting significant pressure on profit opportunities. It may well be that 187.3 million CPUs will ship this year, up from 100 million units in 2002, but prices for complete PCs are falling--with MIT's Nicholas Negroponte planning a hand-cranked $100 laptop. Negroponte's hand-cranked model may not meet the functionality levels you desire, and in fact it's planned for sale only in quantities of 1 million to governments of developing countries. But it's hard to envision any level of PC functionality that would prompt first-world consumers to continue shelling out multiple thousands, or even one thousand, dollars per unit.

Posted by Rick Nelson on November 30, 2005 | Comments (0)