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Link This | Email this | Blog This | Comments (5)
Which modern tech products are headed for the trash heap (or recycle center)?
Today, Boston.com (the Website associated with the Boston Globe newspaper) has a gallery (titled "Headed to the gadget graveyard?") of obsolete consumer technology products paired with their replacements. |
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Obsolete |
New |
| VCR | DVD player |
| Atari | Nintendo Wii |
| floppy disk | USB memory drive |
| cassette tape | iPod |
| rotary phone | iPhone |
| Polaroid camera | digital camera |
| telegram | text messaging |
| Commodore computer | thin laptop |
| answering machine | Blackberry |
| magnetic compass | GPS |
It seems to me that laptops, digital cameras, cell phones, memory sticks, and MP3 players have optimized form factors. It’s hard to see how any of these can shrink much more and still be useful. Obviously, they will evolve with respect to performance (battery life, compute power, storage capacity, etc.), but I think a decade from now products in these categories won’t look much different than they do today.
As for satellite navigation, I expect the maps to get better as well, but I don’t think the products will be drastically different in 10 years. (As of this morning, 53% of voters say GPS will never become obsolete, giving it the lead in the never-becomes-obsolete category. Digital cameras are in second place, with just over 50% of voters saying they will never become obsolete.)
I’d guess the ones to face obsolescence the soonest would be the DVD player and the Wii.
What do you think? And should any of the "obsolete" products be revived?
Update 3:15 p.m. EST: Check out this post on the top 50 inventions since 1955--the now-obsolete Commodore Pet made the list.
Posted by Rick Nelson on March 25, 2008 | Comments (5)
What about the Gramophone, or the Nixie-tubes in the VTVM (or the VTVM itself)?
Ever try to get a heading off a GPS when bushwhacking through heavy undergrowth in a deep, tree-filled canyon? Magnetic compass will never be fully obsolete, not for the deep back-country. Not to say it has to be a little spinning needle in a plastic case -- the "digital compass" in my wristwatch works just fine for those rare times it has been necessary.
CD's are in decline, though I'd hope they don't go obsolete TOO soon (I have too many, but then I still have hundreds of LP's, too!)
I appreciate the link, but while rotary phones may seem to be obsolete, it certainly isn't because of the iPhone. If you don't believe that, then try to get your iPhone to work after a blackout or natural catastrophe. Landlines are the only option then and only with phones (like the rotary dials we sell) that don't require AC current.
There is a trend to be discerned, here. "Bits." When music was "carried" by shellac, then vinyl, then plastic (CDs), we had electromechanical players and physical distribution (e.g. record stores). Today, music is bits. No need or anything other than network distribution and digital reproducers (iPods, MP3 players). The same is true for cameras - we needed film and paper to carry images. Now images are bits. No need for 24-hour developers, 35 mm film, and so on. Video still has carriers (DVDs), but not for long. Like music, video will be distributed via networks and played on non-electromechanical players. Anything that can be reduced to bits will intermediate the carriers and physical distributors.