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Holiday probability and statistics
December 26, 2006
How’s your grasp of probability and statistics? If it’s excellent, then perhaps you would make a good contestant on a game show called “Deal or No Deal.” At first glance, this show seems to be among the most mindless. There are no questions to answer, as in Jeopardy. There are no words and phrases to complete by buying vowels, as in “Wheel of Fortune”: “Thxs shxw xs rxdxcxlxxs.” But a few minutes of watching does suggest a strategy that the successful contestant might follow. (There seems to be an online version you can try to play yourself, but I can’t get it to work.)
Basically, the contestant is given one of about two dozen briefcases, each of which contains, say, from $0.01 to $1 million, an amount that he gets to keep should he complete the game. The contestant would hope to receive the one containing $1 million. He commands that the others be open one at a time. Each one opened that contains a low value increases the odds that the contestant is the lucky possessor of a case containing a high value. (Note the pronoun "he." The contestants I saw were males cheered on by their adoring wives. From a look at the show's Web site, I infer that the producers are targeting the male demographic, perhaps because they believe the stereotype that males are better at math.)
What limited skill that’s involved lies in the fact that a “banker” in the employ of the show periodically offers to buy off the contestant, who must weigh the offer against the remaining possibility of ending up with $1 million or one cent, for instance. To me, the odds seem to suggest continuing, which the contestants seem usually to do, although probably driven by the histrionics of the audience more than any statistical analysis.
One viewing was interesting, but I don’t think I’ll watch again. Probability and statistics are increasingly important to test and measurement, but this show doesn’t have much light to shed on the subject.
If you need a refresher on probability and statistics, I recommend this easy-to-take primer, posted by the enigmatic blogger Echidne of the Snakes.
Posted by Rick Nelson on December 26, 2006 | Comments (0)
