It's the car! No, it's the driver! Wait, it doesn't matter!
Controversy continues to swirl around Toyota and its sudden acceleration problem. What’s wrong? Is it the floor mats or a sticky pedal? What about drive-by-wire and related software? How about driver error? Does it really matter?That last question may sound like a strange one, and I’ll get to it in a minute. First, floor mats. Perhaps the floor mats are exactly what’s been causing the problems, at least in some instances. But let’s face it-you take your $30,000 vehicle in for service because of unexplained acceleration, and the service department says it solved your problem by replacing the floor mat-that’s not a very convincing.
We’ve all had strange experiences with our cars, computers, appliances, or our own bodies, only to be given a simplistic explanation by the “experts” that leaves us almost assured that the problem will return. (It might have helped if Toyota had produced an animation showing exactly how the floor mat impeded proper operation of the pedal-perhaps it did, I didn’t see one.)
With Toyota, the problem sure enough did return after a recall to replace floor mats. Toyota’s latest explanation involves sticky pedals. That at least has a ring of plausibility to it. Long before drive-by-wire, many of us have experienced sticky mechanical linkages that required a shot of WD-40.
But that answer isn’t all that convincing either. My colleague Ron Wilson addresses the problem in the current (March 4) issue of EDN: “I see from the morning news that Toyota’s adventure into the world of embedded software is going badly. The company’s second attempt to find a quick fix for unintended acceleration in its conventionally powered vehicles is barely under way, and evidence is already emerging that the underlying problem is likely in the engine controller, not in the pedal’s mechanical assembly.” Ron goes on to recount Audi’s similar problems decades ago, noting that litigation likely prevented the problem, if it was Audi’s, from a full public airing.
Notes Wilson, “Now, after decades invested in metrics-driven verification, formal verification, and methodology management, designers find that their chips don’t work as expected because the software is still being ‘verified’ by feeding it test cases until the schedule expires. Consumers find that their cars run into these problems for the same reason, and the press blames the problem on ‘electronics.’”
It’s unfortunate that consumers associate automotive electronics and mission-critical real-time software with the foibles of PC performance, but it’s inevitable. It’s particularly unfortunate because of emerging evidence that the culprit is often driver error.
One proposed solution involves smart pedals, in which the brake overrides the accelerator. But in the New York Times, Richard A. Schmidt, a professor emeritus of psychology at the University of California, Los Angeles, comments on his experiences investigating the problems of Audi (on whose behalf he testified): “…based on my experience in the 1980s helping investigate unintended acceleration in the Audi 5000, I suspect that smart pedals cannot solve the problem. The trouble, unbelievable as it may seem, is that sudden acceleration is very often caused by drivers who press the gas pedal when they intend to press the brake.” Schmidt notes that acceleration problems were disproportionately reported by older drivers and short people (so stay out of my way) or drivers unfamiliar with the specific model involved-all of which could lead to pedal confusion.
The New York Times also presents evidence that sudden unattended acceleration is Toyota-specific rather than driver-type specific: “Every automaker in the United States has faced complaints about sudden acceleration. Toyota vehicles have suffered more such instances. In 2008, they accounted for 52 of the 115 complaints to regulators about sudden acceleration.” But that’s a pretty small number that greatly diminishes its statistical significance. (The Times wouldn’t give credence to a poll of 115 respondents in reporting on the likely outcome of a political election.) In addition, publicity could bias the responses, changing the Toyota owner’s opinion from, “gee, I can’t believe I ran into that brick wall,” to “I don’t think it was my fault-it was that sudden unintended acceleration problem I heard about.”
In a recent incident, the Washington Post reports today, “Investigators with Toyota Motor Corp. and the federal government could not replicate the runaway speeding reported by a Prius owner who said his car’s accelerator stuck as he drove on a California freeway, according to a memo drafted for a congressional panel.”
So, car or driver? We’re wasting time asking the question, reports Robert Wright in “Toyotas Are Safe (Enough)” in the Times. Expressing sympathy for victims of accidents that may have been related to unattended acceleration, he nevertheless writes, “I think this whole Toyota thing is overblown…. My back-of-the-envelope calculations…suggest that if you drive one of the Toyotas recalled for acceleration problems and don’t bother to comply with the recall, your chances of being involved in a fatal accident over the next two years because of the unfixed problem are…2.8 in a million…. Meanwhile, your chances of being killed in a car accident during the next two years just by virtue of being an American are one in 5244…. So driving one of these suspect Toyotas raises your chances of dying in a car crash over the next two years from 0.01907 percent…to .01935 percent…. I can live with those odds.”
Wright comments that a potentially fatal feature doesn’t constitute a persuasive objection to its inclusion in a car: “One feature that all cars possess and that has been shown to cause death is motion. But we’ve decided that the benefits of automated motion are worth the cost of more than 30,000 American lives each year.” He does his part to cast aspersions on software (…software, as the people at Microsoft or Apple can tell you, is full of surprises…) but notes software that could take lives in some circumstances (fatal accidents involving sudden acceleration) may save more lives in other contexts (electronic stability control preventing rollover).
Wright notes that electronic throttle control saves gas, and that good mileage translates into dollars saved. He concludes, “I could take the gas money I save via electronic throttle control and send it to Africa and save several lives. Of course, I probably won’t. But if I don’t–if I pass up the chance to spend some money to save a life–am I any less culpable than Toyota was when it bargained with the government to get the least costly fix available (new floor mats) without obsessing over whether floor mats were the root of the problem?”
tom commented:
I've been in Chrysler copcars where shifting the shifter changed the indication on the cluster but didn't shift the transmission. But it wasn't my system to debug. The electronic shifter is a CAN message in that vehicle -- there's no mechanical linkage to the transmission. It's a known issue with a software fix.
How does a Toyota transmission shift?
Burt Beer commented:
Come on. Is there a problem or isn't there a problem? Your statistical gaming doesn't prove anything.
Regards,
Burt Beer
Just Me commented:
I think what people are not thinking of, is that there are multiple causes, of similar apearing, but very differant problems!
Some problems are caused by faulty computers or computers having problems from engine noise,ect., it is a posibility that maybe the cars electrical system is getting old, maybe the voltage regulator is faulty, maybe the alternator has a bad rectifier diode, it may be faulty or damaged wirring, etc. and yes there may be software problems that only crop up under weird conditions, like maybe lets say its a hot day, humid, AC on, car idel's for a long time in heavy traffic, with radio on, and pasenger seat AC vent closed, causing condensation in the AC system to drip on the computer module under the dash on the pasenger side of the car, and the driver has to rev the engine, then hit the break fast, then rev the engine again or some other unusual situation, who knows what trips the problem, but it happens here and there. Or maybe its something far differant that trips the computer to glitch maybe its a comination of impuritys in the gas, certain climatic variations, and maybe a tiny leak in the exahust system that is variable as the car rattles around threw the minefield of modern streets, with pot holes, etc.
Then maybe we have another problem caused by an old or damaged gas pedals that sick, if you push the pedal a certain way, lets say maybe off to one side rather than centered, etc. it jam's on.
And then we may have another problem with people who slide thier floor mats ahead, as they push the gas pedal or break pedal, finaly ending up with the mat pushing on the bottom of the gas pedal, and then they slam down on the break pedal, which just moves the mat harder on the gas pedal, and yes these people could put thier foot under the gas pedal and cut the gas, but thier old, or just panicky, or maybe thier just so scared of the problem, that they inadvertantly cause the mat to push on the pedal, while they are trying so hard to prevent the problem.
Then we have another problem, which adds to the other problems, that is most rear drum breaks rely on people using the parking break to rotate the tightening mechinisum, and if you don't use the parking break, as many people don't, then your rear breaks simply don't work, sure your front breaks are much of your stopping power, but if your engine is racing you need every bit of your breaking power, also the front of the car may dip affecting the acelorometer in the cars computer causing the computer to poor on the gas even more, then add in that if the cars engine is racing, the computer may be doing things to change the engines polution control, or over heating, or fuel air mixture, etc., and these changes may cause the vacuum pressure to drop, and on some transmisions with out vacuum you have trouble changing gears to put the car in nutral, so you can't readly put the car in nutral, so you race along in a paniced state and nothing you do semingly affects the car.
There are all sorts of ways the same apperant problem can occur, and if you have an opinion before you study each case, you will miss the real problem.
Then we have Toyota, they have been twiddling thier thumbs on the problem(S) and not doing anything, finaly the US government gets involved, see's Toyota has been hidding apperant problems, and then the media gets involved, blows everything way out of proportion, and still Toyota does nothing, finaly after every Toyota owner has paniced, Toyota comes out with some pitiful fixes, that to most people seem chintzy and not the solution to thier problem, if Toyota had jummped on this qwick, asked people to bring thier cars in for a change in gas pedal and gave people new floor mats for thier inconveniance and gave people documentation on what to do if there was any future probelms, etc ... sure it would have cost them some money, replacing parts that weren't all bad, but it would have made people happy, and been a publisity coo rather than the publisity fiasco, the apperant problem(s)has become.
This is something most companys can learn from, its all ways better to deal with things first rather than waiting for customers to get ticked off, Toyota has lost thousands of future customers over this, and if the problems continue to occur, they are going to be in big trouble, all for the love of a few extra dollars.
This nick-nacking things down to the tinyest little bit is just costing companys money, people don't like things being chintzy and critical parts shouldn't be cut down to the bare bones, gas peddles shouldn't be cheap plastic, floor mats should have dimmpled bottoms so they don't slide, computers should be shielded, and have internal regulators and filtering and wirring should be a higher gauge than the absolute minimum needed to carry the average load with insulation that won't crack in the extreems of heat and cold a car may experiance.
Volvo S80 driver commented:
I have a 2001 Volvo S80 that regularly and at sometimes inopportune times suddenly surges forward when it's supposed to idle. All experienced Volvo mechanics know about this, there have been a couple of firmware upgrades for things like this, and it's clearly due to too many drive-by-wire functions in the control system. I can't believe there are still informed rational people out there that feel the need to make the ridiculous argument that it's anything but the software. All my EE buddies roll their eyes when the topic comes up: they see this kind of stuff ALL THE TIME.
Roger in Santa Clara commented:
When stepping on the breaks doesn't stop the car, the breaks are not strong enough. I don't care what the engine is doing. This would never happen in any Audi, GMC or BMW I've ever owned.
SafetyCliff commented:
Robert Wright's statistics point to some of the issue but don't state the obvious: people expect/assume there is zero percent risk to anything they choose to do, and if there is an incident it is always some other cause: the car, the other guy.
Yesterday a colleague expressed a "fear of flying" but driving to the airport is a higher risk than a commerical flight.
George suggests "Let's move on" but the "24 hour news cycle" and the Geraldo Rivera-style sensationalism mean we will hear more.
Brakes commented:
Wasnt there a complaint years ago to a car company about unintended acceleration, and the proven fix was to fit a bigger brake pedal?
Steve commented:
When I took drivers ed back in the 60's, the cars had an extra brake pedal for the instructor. The first thing he said before we went out on our first road drive was "This brake pedal works better than your accelerator pedal. If I push it we WILL stop." I suspect things haven't changed much since then...
DaveW commented:
The media blows things out of proportion? I'm shocked! Shocked! Duh. That's what they do for a living. OTOH, we want the things we buy and use to be safe. That means it's OK if we cause the problem that gets us hurt or killed, but not if the product does it. We want products to do things *for* us not *to* us, unless we make them do it. Toyota's problem is that it is treating software controlled systems as they were older, hardware controlled systems. Software is invisible. Everybody needs a flight control computer to capture what happened at a failure - including what the software was doing - or you will never figure it out. And you will never see software failing before the system fails.
Fast Mover commented:
All Toyota drivers know that if you have just been caught speeding by the police…. It was the car that was speeding officer not me.
Jim commented:
It's the car! No, it's the driver! Wait, it doesn't matter!
Just ask the people that died because of the crash.
GCC CDN Prius commented:
Pick an online news site. Type "recall Toyota", "recall Ford", "recall GM, etc.. For the GM search you may get incidents like engine fires and class action. The formula for negative press concerning Toyota goes something like: GM majority invstor - US Treasury. Machiavelli would blush.
George commented:
Unintended acceleration is pilot error or a sham. Every car sold in the US for generations will stop if you put the accelerator to the floor and then apply the brakes. Every car will stop if you shift into neutral. Early on, there were some people who either had a hardware problem or hit the wrong pedal. Those that didn't stop screwed up, pure and simple. All the noise now is from scammers who hope to get paid off by Toyota with that yahoo from CA being the poster child. Car and Driver Magazine recently ran a test, including a 450hp custom Mustang. Even from 100mph, brakes stopped the car with engine at full power. Let's move on.
mani commented:
good
